Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 52062.199263 55200.099141 58346.414951 61735.279680 65279.653610 68874.628280 72793.995355
2024-10-20 46621.823993 51373.565462 56281.567338 61721.416698 67573.560122 73671.546399 80497.673449
2024-10-27 42619.949706 48425.902509 54565.057244 61523.090504 69172.767284 77309.055702 86599.523539
2024-11-03 40352.060250 47025.305802 54218.766717 62521.094676 71809.611067 81851.950468 93500.191495
2024-11-10 38376.098637 45732.905456 53798.414398 63255.411574 73996.491589 85773.042536 99616.147272
2024-11-17 36485.035435 44377.178010 53163.860191 63614.598648 75646.025718 89002.944600 104890.169767
2024-11-24 34615.337505 42918.180655 52296.066486 63598.694113 76774.089217 91569.085803 109356.957402
2024-12-01 33139.799375 41825.552225 51767.115848 63895.586779 78195.255620 94419.889022 114116.550570
2024-12-08 31669.085965 40656.614980 51075.013664 63932.753693 79255.823252 96811.586049 118318.200197
2024-12-15 30814.072249 40175.889561 51153.517393 64842.806446 81314.285658 100349.966960 123857.595203
2024-12-22 29466.284231 39030.712732 50377.820382 64677.390835 82050.452674 102303.233799 127515.308207
2024-12-29 28838.339467 38739.294746 50607.949562 65703.986567 84201.002979 105928.243637 133165.229158
2025-01-05 27948.282743 38098.625061 50398.195496 66193.260783 85716.965834 108829.636716 138011.098730
2025-01-12 26896.186284 37213.311177 49851.863626 66239.541318 86673.832465 111052.938108 142052.271487
2025-01-19 25798.199819 36225.920221 49138.704791 66042.125455 87301.568592 112858.461397 145580.731360
2025-01-26 25346.498478 36053.237373 49436.563945 67100.776820 89482.210754 116563.743377 151443.570944
2025-02-02 24800.004730 35731.861160 49524.659450 67878.256109 91303.572418 119830.179259 156784.405710
2025-02-09 24114.073043 35198.823157 49317.043347 68258.370409 92611.433426 122458.057022 161345.777638
2025-02-16 23298.677655 34463.069889 48819.739240 68241.566870 93397.423072 124426.690404 165089.468000
2025-02-23 22663.532568 33947.927622 48591.002756 68555.654848 94594.144018 126905.518523 169476.869973
2025-03-02 21950.757179 33302.007656 48167.330801 68594.973592 95422.772407 128913.929536 173276.892405
2025-03-09 21636.100843 33192.976154 48449.086261 69557.612817 97446.833434 132444.030287 179016.657865
2025-03-16 20900.421959 32472.881132 47888.433956 69382.650219 97973.969611 134061.181828 182332.957380